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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán emerged as the sole European Union leader to back Donald Trump. This backing came as no shock, given Mr Orbán's embrace of controversial notions including population replacement concept and his restrictions against press independence. Observers point out that Hungary's premier essentially pioneered the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support In advance of Hungary's Polls

Last week, amid pivotal polls in Hungary just half a year off, the US president reciprocated with support. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term governing a country he describes as an non-liberal system, his ruling party is behind in opinion polls. A meeting to the US capital produced beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured far more significant campaign boosts.

Waivers and Fiscal Safeguards

Although before lecturing EU countries on the need to stop all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and warning of restrictions against nations persisting to purchase Russian crude, the US president consented to grant a special exemption for Hungary – the largest EU consumer of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the Trump administration also promised to extend a economic protection to the Hungarian authorities should it encounters any upcoming challenges, especially as the European Union continues to withhold substantial EU funds to the nation due to rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this deal remain unclear. But the US president illustrated his readiness to assist political friends when the America provided a $20 billion in emergency funds to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. Although Orbán did not secure a presidential tour to Budapest, the Washington talks nevertheless proved a productive session.

European Apprehensions and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the strategic importance of the upcoming vote, before which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, holds a comfortable lead in opinion data. EU chiefs know not to look for reliable policies from the Trump White House, and accept the US president’s efforts to belittle the European Union. Yet the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an deal to acquire American energy resources – flagrantly undermines the bloc's aims to phase out Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have contributed well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• At the same time, Hungary has often employed the veto power to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As Europe strives to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and enhancing its leverage in any later diplomatic discussions, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Challenger's Position

Mr Magyar has steered clear of vowing a significant change on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on internal matters, while stressing the necessity for the country to start acting as a productive EU partner. After enduring persistent provocations, the European Union can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, such as the protection of minority groups and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His ongoing blocking tactics toward Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its long-term safety.